Bitcoin Slips to 12‑Day Low, Bringing ‘Uptober’ Surge Into Question

We’re only 9 days away from Uptober, one of the greenest periods in crypto history, but BTC price swings are throwing a big shade at it. Price slips, rather, as it’s been a one-way street for the past 12 days.

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) woke up to a snap sink to $112,532. This pullback wiped out more than $80 billion in total crypto market value in a few hours. More than that, it has slackened the sails of crypto hopefuls who traditionally turn a profit come October.

Uptobar: Hopes vs Reality

Once seen as almost a sure thing for crypto bulls, market pressure, large liquidations, and cautious institutional behavior are coloring the outlook red rather than green.

For years now, October has shown up well for Bitcoin. Since 2013, the month has gone green in 10 out of 12 years and has seen no red since October 2018, when it slipped only 3.8%. For comparison, 2017 and 2021 saw increases of 48% and 40%, respectively.

One of the key triggers of the September 2025 downturn was an unusually large long liquidation event, the biggest of 2025 so far. Over $1 billion in long positions were liquidated in only a matter of hours, with reports that long exposure around $113,000–114,000 proved especially vulnerable.

Other market trends, the reduction in volatility and mega institutions sniffing around, may have also caused the market to hold its collective horses.

Price Predictions

The drop has divided crypto punditry, some arguing that the Uptober is still upon us, while others predict a more muted, if downright disastrous month ahead.

On the positive note, some bullish scenarios imagine Bitcoin pushing toward US$165,000. Optimistic Bitcoiners and analysts, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, argue that the upcurve is imminent if favorable macro and liquidity conditions like the near-impending Federal Reserve rate cut and liquidity drain meet in the middle.

But will they? That’s very much in doubt, says the other camp. They argue that macro factors like inflation data, Fed policy, and labor market weakness remain as volatile as ever.

Furthermore, institutional caution and traders seeking to lock in their profits may not bode well for Bitcoin. Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE exchange, summed it up nicely: “We think that the Uptober trend is less likely to occur this year given the macro uncertainty and the fact that September hasn’t seen markets fall.”

Larger Trends

Some commentators, like Strategy’s Michael Saylor, don’t really lean one way or the other, preferring a more stoic outlook that sees Bitcoin losing attraction and relevance in the wake of increasing institutional interest. “You want the volatility to decrease so the mega institutions feel comfortable entering the space and size,” were Saylor’s exact words.

If the institutions are going to get on board, he argues further, it creates a “conundrum” of sorts whereby the adrenaline of price swings would suck the air out of the room and create a less volatile and a more boring Bitcoin landscape. This could be a good thing for institutional adoption and crypto gambles wary of volatility, but it is less than stellar for individuals banking on large daily swings.

Bottom line

Bitcoin’s drop to a 12‑day low and the largest long liquidation event of 2025 to date have thrown into sharp relief the downside risks for the much‑anticipated Uptober rally. While historical precedent, growing institutional interest, and potential Fed easing give bulls plausible cases for an uptick, something is lost in the momentum.

It doesn’t mean that Uptober is dead in the crib, but it does bring uncertainty into the mix at a period traditionally seen as favorable. Ironically, if the darker predictions pan out, it would signal greater periodical volatility, just not in the way most Bitcoiners wanted.